The Unseen Arsenal: Why health is the new economic battleground
As geopolitical tensions intensify, a nation’s true strength may lie in its ability to invest in human capital and ensure the health and prosperity of its citizens. In this time of global uncertainty, what is that worth?
Written by Michael Oberreiter, Head of External Affairs International (Roche)
As geopolitical rivalries intensify and global financial tectonic plates shift, we tend to measure national strength in conventional terms: military might, commodity prices, and access to semiconductor supply chains. However, a nation’s true strength may not only lie in its conventional tools of power, but in the health and productivity of its people. This is not just a humanitarian concern, it’s an economic and security imperative. A healthy population is a nation’s most valuable asset, the quiet engine of its growth and resilience in a world of uncertainty.
This isn’t hyperbole. The global disease burden is staggering. The World Health Organisation estimates that noncommunicable diseases like cancer, diabetes, and heart disease account for over 70% of all deaths globally1. The impact of this is astronomical. Every life lost or disrupted by illness is so much more than a number – it is an unfinished story. Each number represents delayed education, missed days at work, dreams deferred. They are the weight on a family’s shoulders and a drag on a nation’s potential.
This does not need to be the case. Research shows that by using existing interventions, including medicines and health technologies, we could reduce the global disease burden by 40% by 20402. Alongside making people healthier and more productive, this would generate an additional $12 trillion in global GDP3.
Although we can – and should – do better with what we have, why stop there? To truly build a nation’s power, investment is critical. Investing in the health of a nation’s people can yield a robust return. For every $1 invested in healthcare, a return of up to $4 is possible4—a return that strengthens the very foundation of the state. In a world where nations compete for economic dominance, a robust, healthy, and high-performing workforce is the ultimate asset. A dollar invested in healthcare today is an investment in the nation’s future GDP, its capacity for innovation, and its long-term resilience.
Take breast cancer, a disease that affects over 2.3 million people per year5. This number – mostly women – has a much further-reaching impact. Women provide an estimated 76% of global caring responsibilities6 with many also juggling paid employment. Their illness has a massive economic impact of an estimated $20 trillion per year7.
To illustrate this impact, consider the specific case of HER2+ breast cancer, one of the focal points of recent research conducted by the WiFOR institute in partnership with Roche. This aggressive subtype of cancer makes up about 1 in 5 cases and is projected to cost ten key economies8 a cumulative $992 billion in productivity losses between 2024 and 20329. This isn’t just a health statistic: it’s the quiet erosion of a nation’s talent and expertise, diminishing its collective capacity to innovate, compete and contribute.
But investment in HER2+ breast cancer innovation changes this, transforming outcomes for patients while also reducing the burden on families, health systems, and society. Innovative treatments are expected to contribute nearly $9 billion to GDP of these ten economies between 2024 and 203210, directly enabling women to return to the workforce and other social responsibilities. Notably, treating early-stage HER2+ breast cancer yields 20% greater economic and social impact per patient than late-stage intervention11, a compelling lesson in the value of prevention and early detection for national policymakers.
In an era of tight budgets, amidst immediate fiscal pressures and competing demands, the temptation to deprioritise long-term, foundational investments is understandable. Yet this data makes one thing clear: medical innovation is not a cost, but a powerful engine for progress. The nations that will thrive will be those that recognise health as a strategic asset, where ministries of health, finance, and industry work in concert to build a resilient and high-performing society. This is the future of national power—a future built not on conventional dominance, but on the enduring strength of a healthy, innovative, and productive citizenry.
- World Health Organization ↩︎
- McKinsey ↩︎
- McKinsey ↩︎
- Mckinsey ↩︎
- World Health Organization ↩︎
- World Health Organization ↩︎
- World Health Organization ↩︎
- Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States ↩︎
- WiFOR Institute ↩︎
- WiFOR Institute ↩︎
- WiFOR Institute ↩︎